Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Prediction

Today... I predict that Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

6 comments:

thea said...

after watching the debate I would have to agree.

paul said...

Thea... hey, thanks for the pastor appreciation cookies. That was very thoughtful of you.

paul said...

Btw, I think McCain did very well. And, this was in no way Obama's best performance. I think McCain's emphasis on small government (freeze spending) was very well done. Also, for those in the "pro-life issue only camp," the lines were drawn fairly clearly tonight (as if we all didn't know their positions anyway).

My prediction involves independent voters. The question is, "What will it take to swing independents?" I think McCain galvanized his base, but probably did not swing enough undecided voters (although his numbers will most likely go up because of this debate).

Joel said...

Tony Jones wrote recently on his blog about Obama's (he calls him BO) "preternatural calm." That occured to me last night watching the debate. Obama seemed to look at McCain when he talked and McCain looked elsewhere. Is that a result of McCain's physical challenges from when he was a POW? Or is it just a personal style?
It may just be my bias, but it seemed to me that Obama was more respectful of McCain during this and other debates than the other way around. Again, that could just be me.
I kinda like the idea of a smart (they both are), respectful (are they both?) leaders with a disposition that allows for calm decisiveness(are they both?).
Paul, as much as it pains me to admit this in public ... I agree with you about our next president.
But ... you must know, I'm not sure that I've been right since Jimmy Carter. So, what do I know?

Joel said...

Golly, that makes me sound old! (Jimmy Carter ... for pity sakes!)

Anonymous said...

I agree with you that McCain did very well. I think his only downfall was his obvious show of frustration and sometimes anger during the debate. I personally was disappointed with Obama. I really thought he should have been more direct with his answers. I also felt he could have been more heartfelt with his closing statement. McCain’s closing statement was not only eloquent (for him) but he seemed very genuine in saying he would humbly serve this country.

I also think you are correct in saying that independent voters will have a major deciding factor in this campaign, which is historical, and both the Republican and Democratic parties will have to start changing their politics in order to cater to this independents swing vote. In answer to your question "what will it take to swing independents"...I think one of the reasons this is such an amazing race is that we have two candidates that both cater to independents (me being one of them). We have a liberal republican and a conservative democrat. Both of these men are closer to the center than the past 4 presidents we have had. In order to swing the independents, one of the major parties will have to produce more representatives like these two as well as show a more understanding behavior towards the other party (whether that other party is the majority party or not). I do think the Democrats are closer to independent ideology, yet they never seem to have the courage to act on it. They are in a constant defensive and reactionary position to the republicans, even when, like now, they are the majority party. The Republicans, have the right winged evangelical community and in order for them to gain independent votes, they will have to tone down the evangelical antics. Sorry to have to say, I do not see that one happening in the near future.